A rchive Date
[ 30-01-2006 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Palestine ]
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[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11023204/site/newsweek/
Web Exclusive
Militants and Moderates
Will Hamas move away from violence after its surprise victory in the Palestinian election?
By Kevin Peraino
Updated: 11:37 a.m. ET Jan. 26, 2006
Jan. 26, 2006 - Firas Ammar isn't buying the campaign slogans. On this cold and cloudy Election Day in the West Bank - as Palestinians stream to the polls to cast their first ballots in 10 years for a Palestinian legislature - the 34 - year - old barber stands outside a Ramallah polling station with his hands stuffed into his pockets. He looks on with a cynical squint as voters squeeze past the Hamas supporters wearing bright green baseball caps, handing out campaign fliers and insisting that force is the only language Israel understands. Ammar is unconvinced. "This is just campaigning," he insists coolly. "Hamas will negotiate. They say they won't, but they will. They'll have to."
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has wagered his presidency on the hope that Ammar is right. When Abbas took power one year ago, he decided to engage Hamas and other Islamist groups - betting that politics might moderate the organization that both Israel and the United States classify as a terrorist group. And though Hamas boycotted past legislative elections, the fundamentalists have proven to be quick learners of the art of modern campaigning. Preliminary results of Wednesday's elections indicated that Hamas had won a significant majority of the Palestinian Legislative Council's 132 seats. Fatah leaders conceded defeat, and Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia announced that he - and the entire Fatah - controlled cabinet - would resign. With Abbas expected to ask Hamas leaders to form a new government, the Islamic movement's upset victory represented a monumental realignment in Palestinian politics.
But will the realities of practical politics really force Hamas to evolve? Israeli policymakers aren't so sure. While some Hamas leaders have hinted that they're not opposed to negotiations with Israel, candidates on the stump regularly use hard - line rhetoric when it suits them. It's not clear yet, at least to some Israeli officials, that Hamas will be forced to choose between politics and violence any time soon. "Nothing like that is happening right now," says a senior Israeli security source, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of his work. "For the immediate period, I don't think they'll have to make a decision. They can prolong it. I think their success [in the elections] will be enough of a positive for them to stay unified."
At least for now, Hamas officials are trying to have it both ways - and they may be succeeding. At a rally last week in the West Bank town of Abu Dis, Hamas candidate Muhammad Abu Tir preached to a crowd of supporters about the futility of past negotiations. "Abu Mazen [Abbas’s nickname] didn’t achieve anything,” Tir shouted from the stage. “He’s still preaching about [the peace accord at] Oslo! Oslo is dead.” The message seems to resonate with some segments of the Palestinian public. "In southern Lebanon, [Hizbullah] achieved peace through force," says Huda Yacoub, a 40 - year - old Hamas supporter standing outside the Ramallah polling station. Polls show that most Palestinians also credit armed resistance with driving Israel from the Gaza Strip last summer.
The perception of strong leadership wins votes in almost any society. Nashat Aqtash, a communications professor at Bir Zeit University in Ramallah who advises Hamas candidates (though he says he is not a member of the group), insists that Hamas's defiant message still resonates particularly well in the chaotic Palestinian territories. "Talking about resistance makes people emotional," he says. "People like strong people: the fighter, the strongman, the cowboy in your culture." Even some in the West have suggested that a stronger Palestinian leadership might not be such a bad thing, especially in the lawless Gaza Strip.
But after the elections, Hamas officials will also need to begin wooing some very different constituencies - not least of which may be the international donor community. Already Hamas leaders moderate their message depending on their listeners. Hamas cofounder Mahmoud Zahar told NEWSWEEK he was skeptical of future negotiations - but he also didn't rule them out. “The previous experience is bad,” he says. “We did not benefit at all. However, if another attempt is made and it is successful, this situation will lessen the embarrassment for all sides."
Zahar’s milder rhetoric may be calculated. As Hamas takes power, some Hamas consultants are beginning to worry that the group's militant language risks alienating newer, less - committed supporters. The dilemma for Hamas is that polls show most Palestinians favor Abbas's more moderate position when it comes to negotiating peace with Israel. Aqtash fears the group could turn off some of its recently courted swing voters - and the West - with its strident tone. He insists Hamas would be better off putting the emphasis on its social - services projects, not its weapons. "We're screaming, we're crying, we're shouting," he complains.
Firas Ammar, for one, is tired of the shouting. "Wartime is finished," says the Ramallah barber. "We don't want any more." Fatah has its own problems, he admits. "Listen, they have corruption," says Ammar. "Who doesn't?" Still, he believes Abbas's secular party is better than the alternative; new advertising campaigns will not change his mind. But plenty of his countrymen clearly think otherwise - and have shown it by ushering Hamas into power. Holding on to it - and moderate voters like Ammar - will be the hard part for Hamas.
With Dan Ephron and Joanna Chen in Jerusalem
Editor’s Note: This report was updated on Jan. 26, 2006, to include the results of the election
© 2006 MSNBC.com
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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