A rchive Date
[ 28-03-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Iraq ]
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[http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis_mar28.html
Iraqis neither 'shocked' nor 'awed'
By ERIC MARGOLIS -- Contributing Foreign Editor
March 28, 2003
The American-British invasion of Iraq, billed as a six-day war, is behind schedule and encountering unexpected problems. However, nasty surprises are typical of all wars: Murphy's Law, not von Clausewitz, governs combat operations.
The dash on Baghdad to overthrow President Saddam Hussein's regime failed, as did U.S. attempts to assassinate the Iraqi leader and promote rebellion. Iraqis do not appear eager to be liberated by the U.S. and Britain: even anti-regime Shia regions battled the invaders.
Iraqi forces did not disintegrate at the first shock. Plans to simply bypass all urban centres proved unrealistic. Turkey's refusal to allow U.S. ground troops to attack Iraq from its territory seriously wrong-footed Pentagon war plans, delaying engagement of the U.S. 4th Infantry Division.
Fierce Iraqi resistance, supply problems, and sandstorms delayed the thrust, and grounded the powerful U.S. 101st Air Assault Division. However, coalition forces managed to occupy many of Iraq's oil fields, a prime objective. British forces were forced to besiege the port city of Basra.
These setbacks will not deter the overall American-British offensive, but they are hardly a triumph of arms against a small nation of 17 million (minus rebellious Kurds) and raise questions about the accuracy of U.S. war planning.
American and British losses of men and materiel are almost certainly higher than those being reported by the Pentagon or tame U.S. media. Pentagon policy, developed in the ongoing guerrilla war in Afghanistan, is to understate losses and/or ascribe them to accidents, "hard landings," or missing in action.
The U.S. is reportedly rushing in two or three more heavy divisions from its central reserve. This will mean 50% of the U.S. Army, and all its best divisions, are in Mesopotamia at a time when North Korea is threatening war.
IRREGULARS ATTACKING
Unexpected Iraqi opposition consumed alarmingly large amounts of precision-guided munitions, cruise missiles and spare parts. The 350-km-long supply lines for U.S. forces, now massed near Najaf and Kerbala, are under attack by Iraqi irregulars. The other American-Brit offensive axis up the Tigris Valley has been stopped in its tracks at Kut.
Iraqi forces are fighting with courage and unexpected skill, even launching often reckless counterattacks against U.S. forces. After 10 days of combat, the American-British invasion forces have not captured a single city. It took coalition forces more than a week to subdue Umm Qasr, a tiny port of 4,000 people. Now, the invaders face being drawn into urban warfare even before the attack on Baghdad. Basra, Nasiriyah, Najaf, Kerbala, and Kut all lie athwart U.S. supply lines and shelter Iraqi forces.
OBSOLETE WEAPONS
It is remarkable that Iraqi forces have so stoutly resisted and managed to mount limited offensive operations. They have no air cover, lack effective anti-aircraft weapons and are thus totally vulnerable in open terrain. Iraq's obsolete armour, even relatively modern T-72 tanks, is ineffective against U.S. M1 Abrams tanks except at point-blank range. So are most Iraqi anti-tank weapons, although some modern Russian-made ones are causing problems for U.S. armoured units. Iraqi forces outside Baghdad are barely able to move; their supply lines are either totally severed or under constant attack; they have no hope of medical evacuation or even retreat.
Resupplied U.S. forces should resume moving north this weekend. Special forces and British SAS are being rushed in to protect lines of communication. U.S. airborne and special forces in northern Iraq are trying to mobilize Kurds to attack Mosul and Kirkuk. The 101st Air Assault Division will likely be deployed west or north of Baghdad.
Major land battles will begin within days. Advancing U.S. forces are nearing Iraqi Republican Guards and regulars ringed some 20-30 km outside Baghdad, who are being subjected to the most ferocious and precise air bombardment in history.
Whatever the military imbalance, many Iraqis appear determined to keep fighting and wage a guerrilla war once their nation is completely occupied.
Eric can be reached by e-mail at margolis@foreigncorrespondent.com. Letters to the editor should be sent to editor@sunpub.com or visit his home page
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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