A rchive Date
[ 22-11-2003 ]
Category
[ Science ]
sub-Categoy
[ Eco-Systems ]
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[http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Science/Suzuki/2003/11/19/262469.html
Growing population drives the need for change
By David Suzuki
Wed, November 19, 2003
In the next 50 years, 2.6 billion more souls will be added to our little club called humanity. That's more people than were alive on the entire planet in 1950 and it will bring our population to nearly nine billion. No doubt such an increase will put tremendous strain on our already-taxed natural resources, but what the future will look like still depends on choices we make today.
Before 1950, no person had ever lived to see the global population double. In my lifetime, the population has tripled. The scale of such rapid growth is unprecedented. There are now 10 times as many people alive as there were just 300 years ago.
Although our absolute annual increase in numbers has declined since 1970, we are still adding 77 million people to the planet every year. Where and how these people live is changing. We've gone from being a largely rural society, to one that increasingly inhabits cities. By the end of this decade, it is estimated that more than half of all people will live in cities. And by 2030, well over 80 per cent of people in developed countries will live in urban areas.
Recently, a series of articles in the journal Science examined what some of these changes will mean for humanity. Although much of the information presented shows disturbing trends and an uncertain future, what is certain is that we still have opportunities to change our future for the better.
For example, feeding almost nine billion people will indeed be a huge challenge - especially since the largest increases in population will be in poorer areas of the world. Only about 10 per cent of the earth's surface is suitable for agriculture, and even with intensification of agricultural processes, it's estimated that 120 million more hectares of land in developing countries will likely be converted to agriculture over the next 25 years.
Martin Jenkins of the United Nations Environment Programme points out in Science that such an enormous land conversion will change the face to the earth. The remaining large blocks of rainforest in both the Amazon and Zaire Basins, for example, will become things of the past, resulting in a large loss of species diversity and a host of unknown changes and potential problems, such as altered regional weather patterns.
In addition to agricultural pressures, developing countries will face increasing demand for lumber and other raw materials from what is left of their wild spaces. Although the economic value of conserving wild areas is often vastly greater than exploiting them, it can be often tempting for officials in poor areas to take what they get now, rather than to conserve for the future. One recent study found the countries that currently house the greatest number of species also have the most corrupt governments and the worst conservation records. In spite of these challenges, we still have opportunities for change. Mr. Jenkins points out, for example, that declines in the number of wild species associated with agricultural land in developed nations may or may not continue, depending on the success of the consumer push towards "greener" forms of agriculture.
The world population is almost certainly going to increase by nearly 50 per cent in less than 50 years. But how well we are able to cope with that increase depends on our reaction to the social and environmental challenges we face today - poverty, unsustainable agricultural practices, resource depletion and climate change. Dealing with these problems will only become harder as our population increases. By facing them sooner, rather than later, we will be able to choose our own future, rather than letting it choose us
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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