A rchive Date
[ 23-03-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Iraq ]
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[http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis_mar23.html
The moment of truth for Iraq
Will Saddam Hussein's forces stand and fight, or bow to the imperial might of the U.S. and Britain?
By ERIC MARGOLIS -- Contributing Foreign Editor
March 23, 2003
The fearsome Sudanese nationalist leader known as the "Mahdi" was a dire threat to his own nation, the neighbouring Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, Egypt and the entire Christian world, proclaimed Britain's Imperial government. The Mahdi's Dervish army had taken Khartoum by storm and killed the saintly Sir Charles "Chinese" Gordon, British sirdar, or proconsul, of the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan.
So the British Empire sent a "coalition" army of white troops and Egyptian native units up the Nile under the command of Lord Kitchener with orders to crush the Mahdi before his calls for freedom from British imperial rule for Muslim peoples might infect all Africa. The Dervishes mounted the first major Islamic resistance against European colonial occupation.
On Sept. 2, 1898, the British Army met the Dervish army outside Khartoum at Omdurmam. In spite of fanatical bravery by the Dervish cavalry and Nilotic tribesmen popularized by Rudyard Kipling as "Fuzzy-Wuzzies," their spears and broadswords were useless against Britain's field artillery and Maxim guns (machineguns), which mowed down the oncoming waves of cavalry. The Dervishes lost 10,000 dead and 16,000 wounded. British losses were 41 dead, 382 wounded. The modern age of industrial imperialism had dawned.
The British poet, Hillaire Beloc, summed it up well: Whatever happens we have got, the Maxim gun and they have not.
Now, the newest Islamic bogeyman to threaten the West's colonial interests in the Mideast, Iraq's Saddam Hussein, is about to meet his fate as once again another imperial army, this time of U.S., British and Australian troops, marches up the Tigris and Euphrates valleys to lay fire and sword upon Baghdad.
The U.S.-British imperial forces are expected to encounter little resistance until they plunge into downtown Basra, or reach Nasariyah on the Tigris, both this weekend. If Iraq's three divisions in the southern region fail to stoutly defend their positions, it will be shown as a collapse of military morale by the regular army. If the Iraqi Army fails to defend Amara and Kut on the Euphrates, or fight for the Shia cities of Kerbala and Najaf, this will mean the road to Baghdad is wide open. Without major resistance, vanguards of the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division and Marine Expeditionary force should have reached Baghdad's outskirts by late yesterday or early this morning.
Secret front
Meanwhile, a top secret front has been opened due west of Baghdad. U.S. and British forces seized the huge H-3 air base and the small H-2 base, both built when Britain was colonial ruler of Iraq. Light armour - notably the U.S. Army's new Striker wheeled vehicles - will be airlifted in or inserted from Jordan and used to mount a brigade-sized dash 140 miles east down the main desert road to Baghdad. H-3 could also be quickly turned into a base for U.S. air operations.
In the north, the U.S. 101st Airborne Division has dropped around the oil cities of Kirkuk and Mosul, both with good airfields, to prevent Turkish troops from advancing south and seizing the fields, one of the great prizes in George Bush's war. Light mobile forces can then be airlifted in to begin a southward race for Baghdad. Iraq's six divisions in the north are unlikely to put up much of a fight, bereft as they are of any air cover and attacked on all sides by U.S. forces and Kurdish irregulars.
By early this week, the moment of truth should be reached. Will Iraq's best troops - Republican Guards and assorted security units - defend the two concentric rings of fortified positions drawn around Baghdad, a city of five million? Will President Hussein make good his vow to turn the Arab World's second city into a Stalingrad?
Psychological warfare
As of this writing, it is impossible to determine if the Iraqis will fight, or succumb to a long, intensive U.S. psychological warfare campaign to shake the loyalty of the regime's troops and provoke an army coup, mass defections and surrenders.
If Iraqi forces do indeed fail to resist with vigour, and begin collapsing, the U.S. may be unable to deploy many new high-tech shock weapons it planned to use in the war. Iraq was to have been the test lab for many new, 21st century military technologies. The Pentagon will be disappointed, but there's always Iran or Syria, both of which are being named next priority targets by the group of Bush administration hard-liners linked with Israel's right-wing Likud party. PM Ariel Sharon of Israel recently called on the U.S. to "march on Tehran" the day after Baghdad is occupied.
As of now, Saddam Hussein's days appear to be numbered. He has weeks, at most. The Imperial forces may have no more trouble reaching Baghdad than Lord Kitchener did taking Khartoum. The conflict between 286 million Americans and 22 million Iraqis, half of whom are in revolt against their own government, is a war between a mastodon and a mouse, with but one conclusion.
Iraqis may still fight hard around Baghdad and from other urban areas. But the outcome of this second imperial war of the 21st century (Afghanistan was the first), is certain. After all, the U.S. has the Maxim gun, and the Iraqis have not. And that, poet Belloc noted, is the might that makes right.
Eric can be reached by e-mail at margolis@foreigncorrespondent.com. Letters to the editor should be sent to editor@sunpub.com or visit his home page
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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