A rchive Date
[ 14-08-2005 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ India ]
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[http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2005/08/14/1172129.html
Fingers on the button
By ERIC MARGOLIS
Sun, August 14, 2005
In 1999, Pakistan and India came terrifyingly close to nuclear war during fierce fighting over northern Kashmir. Today, their nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert for fear of a decapitating surprise first strike.
Flight times of their nuclear-armed ballistic missiles are only minutes. Neither side has adequate early warning systems against nuclear attack. India's nuclear command and control system is still shaky.
False reports of incoming missiles or aircraft, or a missile test gone astray, could trigger a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan that would kill up to 2 million, cause 100 million casualties, and pollute the entire globe with radioactive dust.
So the just-concluded agreement between Delhi and Islamabad to exchange advance notice of missile tests, and extend a ceasefire in Kashmir, is welcome news.
But those old enemies just can't seem to miss a chance to one-up each other. A week after the missile accord was announced, Pakistan proudly revealed the test of its first nuclear-capable, 500-km-range cruise missile, "Babur."
Pakistan didn't warn India of the test. Why? According to Islamabad's lame excuse, "Babur" was air-breathing and thus a different class of weapon from ballistic missiles.
Delhi was not amused, and rightly so. Pakistan's test blatantly undermined efforts to build confidence and normalize relations between them. If anything, the terrain-hugging "Babur," which is almost invisible to radar, poses even a greater threat of a surprise first strike than Pakistan's 2,000-km-ranged "Shaheen II" ballistic missiles.
Not to be outdone, India announced its 3,000-km-range "Agni-III" nuclear capable missile would be tested by year's end.
But India's shorter-ranged "Agni II" and "Prithvi" missiles can hit nearly all useful targets in Pakistan. "Agni-III" seems clearly designed to be used against China, a point not lost on Beijing.
India has a very large nuclear weapons program, but has always rejected UN nuclear inspection, accusing Western powers of "nuclear apartheid" in seeking to maintain their monopoly on weapons of mass destruction.
Eager to enlist India in its so-called "war on terrorism," and to build a strategic counterweight to China, the Bush administration recently approved the sale of U.S. nuclear technology to India.
The Indians were thrilled to be granted major U.S. ally status and have their much-criticized nuclear program accepted. What many Indians failed to see was that their entente with Washington risked driving them into confrontation with neighbouring China.
The Bush administration's neocons have designated China as America's new enemy of choice -- after Iran. India could be used as a weapon against China. Beijing must view the new U.S.-India alliance as a major threat.
Far from promoting "stability," as U.S. President George W. Bush claims, the U.S.-India axis threatens to destabilize Asia by re-igniting tensions between India and China that led their Himalayan border war in 1962.
While the White House encourages India's nuclear power, it is moving closer to attacking Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Western intelligence estimates Iran would require 10 years to develop nuclear weapons. But Israeli intelligence reportedly believes Tehran could produce a nuclear warhead by 2006. So Israel has been exerting intense pressure through its U.S. supporters to have Iran's nuclear plants destroyed.
Ironically, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea all rejected UN nuclear inspection, and all developed nuclear weapons.
Iran has no nukes, but is suspected of wanting to develop them behind the cover of a civilian power program. After resuming uranium enrichment last week, Tehran now faces sanctions or even war over what it might do in the future.
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