A rchive Date
[ 18-07-2024 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ U.S ]
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[https://blueprint2024.com/polling/memo-tax-policy-trump-biden/
Death By a Thousand Tax Cuts: Exploiting Trump’s Biggest Vulnerability
This Blueprint poll is informed by a sample of 1,039 respondents, fielded on April 12 and April 13, and weighted to education, gender, race, respondent quality, and 2020 election results. The margin of error is +/- 4.5. The full toplines can be found here and crosstabs here.
New polling from Blueprint shows that, when it comes to beating a Republican presidential candidate, some things in politics haven’t changed as much as we think. In 2024, one of Democrats’ best weapons against Trump is to bring back an oldie-but-goodie attack against Republican nominees: he would be a president for the rich, not average Americans.
Twelve years after Mitt Romney’s infamous “47 percent” gaffe, our newest polling indicates that the same line of attack that Barack Obama used against Romney—that the Republican presidential candidate is a rich guy whose economic and tax policies help billionaires and large corporations—is still galvanizing to Democrats and appealing to the crucial persuadable voters that would comprise a winning Biden coalition in the fall. This populist economic message is one to prominently center as the general election season progresses. This is true even among the higher income voters that are increasingly gravitating into the Democratic coalition. Democrats are in have your cake and eat it too situation: Haley voters and voters earning more than the median income are skeptical that Trump will have their economic interests in mind.
This poll builds on previously released Blueprint findings:
- Our survey on the deficit showed that Biden’s approach to reducing it—namely, making the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share—is popular, while Trump and Republicans’ approach to the deficit, which includes tax cuts for corporations and the very wealthy, is not.
- In another recent poll, we found “Trump will let rich tax cheats off the hook” and “Trump would cut taxes for the rich but not working- and middle-class families” ranked among the top five voter concerns about the former president. There does not appear to be a significant class divide on this issue. When we asked voters if they were concerned that Trump would cut taxes for the rich but not working- and middle-class Americans, 58% of those in households making less than $50,000 a year said they are concerned about it, while 56% of those in households making $100,000+ a year said the same.
- And our first poll revealed that 62% of voters believe the Republican Party focuses “a lot” on the rich.
KEY FINDINGS
A Majority of Voters Believe—and Don’t Like—That Trump’s Policies Mostly Benefit Rich People
There’s broad consensus that Trump’s policies mostly benefit wealthier people—an opportunity that can be taken advantage of as the general election approaches. 51% of voters—including 92% of Democrats, 61% of moderates, 52% of independents, 58% of college-educated voters, and 81% of Haley voters—are worried that Trump will advocate for the interests of the very rich but not for working- and middle-class Americans.
Additionally, 52% of voters are worried that Trump will pass tax policies that favor the very rich but not middle-class Americans. That majority includes 91% of Democrats, 64% of moderates, 64% of Black or Hispanic voters under 45, 56% of college-educated voters, 53% of independents, 50% of non-college-educated voters, and 79% of Hailey voters.
Similarly, 58% of voters agree that Trump’s tax cuts have benefited people who are richer than they are. That includes 67% of college-educated voters, 84% of Democrats, 82% of Haley voters, 60% of independents, 58% of moderates, and 60% of voters in households making above the median income.
When asked who they think benefited the most from Trump’s overall economic policies, 56% of voters say that the beneficiaries were people who are richer than they are. That figure includes 93% of Democrats, 56% of independents, 65% of moderates, 58% of college-educated voters, 74% of Haley voters, and 50% of voters making more than the median household income. In contrast, just 37% of voters think Biden’s overall economic policies benefit people who are richer than they are.
Finally, a significantly higher share of voters are worried that Trump would implement policies that only benefit the very rich than are worried that Biden would implement policies that only benefit poor Americans. When asked, “Which are you more worried about: that Joe Biden would implement policies that will only benefit poor Americans or that Donald Trump would implement policies that will only benefit the very rich?” 55% said the latter.
Biden Has Work to Do on Differentiating Himself from Trump on Taxes
While voters clearly believe that Trump will pass tax policy that favors the rich, they do not yet associate Biden as strongly with the opposite position: 41% of voters are worried that Trump will raise taxes for households making less than $400,000 per year, while 56% of voters are worried that Biden will raise taxes for working- and middle-class families.
Troublingly, that 56% figure includes 55% of independents, 54% of those in households making less than the median income (as well as 59% of voters making more than that), and 58% of non-college-educated voters. 45% of moderates, 42% of Black or Hispanic voters under 45, and 25% of Democrats are also worried about Biden raising taxes for working- and middle-class families.
The Biden campaign has more work to do to convince voters that he is the only candidate who has the backs of the working and middle class. Biden needs to more clearly differentiate his tax policy from Trump’s to assuage the fear that Biden would raise taxes on working- and middle-class people.
Especially concerning is that fewer voters are worried that Trump would raise taxes for working- and middle-class families than are worried about Biden doing so: 51% of voters—including 56% of independents, 62% of moderates, and just 13% of Republicans—are worried that Trump would raise taxes for working- and middle-class families. Biden is up against pervasive and long-standing assumptions that Democrats tend to raise taxes across the board, not just on the wealthy.
Playing the Hits: Voters Still Like Obama’s 2012 Message
When it comes to economic messaging that resonates across the electorate, Obama’s populism-inflected 2012 messages still go over well in 2024. When asked to pick their favorite statements about the economy in a comparative preference test between Obama and Biden messaging, without being told who said it, the two most commonly selected by voters were from Obama during the final stage of his reelection bid:
- “When faced with economic challenges, we must always bet on American workers. Time and time again, they have demonstrated their resilience, skills, and ability to adapt to changing circumstances. The strength of our nation lies in the hardworking people who drive innovation and growth every day.” This quote was selected 65% of the time.
- And: “I’m fighting for the hardworking people of this country—those on Social Security, veterans, students, soldiers, and everyday Americans who pay their taxes but may not earn enough to get by. If they succeed, I believe our nation will succeed. That’s why I’m asking for your vote and the opportunity to continue serving as your president.” This was selected 64% of the time.
But notably, another compelling message—tied for the third-most-popular message and selected 62% of the time—is a Biden quote that made the case for the value of ensuring that the rich are contributing their fair share to deficit reduction: “Now let me speak to the question of fundamental fairness for all Americans. I’ve been delivering real results in fiscally responsible ways. We’ve already cut the federal deficit—we’ve already cut the federal deficit by over $1 trillion. I signed a bipartisan deal to cut another trillion dollars in the next decade. It’s my goal to cut the federal deficit another $3 trillion by making big corporations and the very wealthy finally beginning to pay their fair share.”
It’s important to recognize that Biden’s message on tax fairness and deficit reduction has power similar to top-testing Obama-era Democratic economic messaging—a finding that may be surprising to those who feel that Democrats currently lack an economic communications approach that matches prior successes.
A separate test of pro-Biden messages found approaches that are particularly compelling to voters include, “President Biden believes no billionaire should pay a lower tax rate than a firefighter, a teacher, a sanitation worker, or a nurse. Everyone should pay their fair share, with the wealthiest Americans and big corporations finally contributing what they rightfully owe” (69%), “Under President Biden’s tax plan, nobody earning less than $400,000 will pay an additional penny in federal taxes. Joe Biden is looking out for the middle class, not the millionaires and billionaires” (62%), and “When Donald Trump was president, he tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which would’ve meant eliminating protections for pre-existing conditions. Joe Biden has taken on big pharmaceutical companies to lower the price of prescription drugs” (56%).
Voters Are Willing to Support Candidates Who Will Raise Their Taxes
When asked whether they agree or disagree with the statement “I will vote for the candidate who will best represent the interests of the American middle class even if it means I might have to pay higher taxes,” 43% of voters agree and 22% disagree. Unsurprisingly, Democrats are much more likely to agree than Republicans. College-educated voters are more likely to agree (57% agree) than those without a college degree (37% agree). Crucially for Biden, 46% of Haley voters agree, while just 20% of Haley voters disagree. Among voters in households making more than the median income, 48% agree with the statement, while 21% disagree. This suggests that economic populism won’t risk alienating the higher income, higher education Haley voters Biden needs to pull into his camp.
This result is in line with a question that appears earlier in the survey, in which respondents say which view of the economy is closer to theirs:
- “Cutting taxes for businesses and job creators helps everyone because they invest in jobs for the middle class” or
- “We should invest in the middle class to create a solid base for economic growth and opportunity”
On this question, 65% of voters overall prefer the second framework (investing in the middle class), while only 35% prefer the first (cutting taxes on businesses and job creators). The 65% includes 67% of voters in households earning less than the median income and 63% of those in households earning more than the median income. Voters of all incomes are willing to pay more in taxes if they feel that they are creating a strong middle-class base for economic growth.
The Income Divide on Tax Policy Isn’t What One Might Expect
Haley voters are more likely than average to signal opposition to Trump’s tax policies and openness to Biden’s tax-the-rich rhetoric and policies. Because Haley voters are wealthier and are more likely to have a college degree than voters overall—62% of Haley voters earn more than the median household income, compared to 50% of voters overall; 46% are college-educated, compared to 36% of voters overall—this suggests that voters of higher socioeconomic status are supportive of economically populist rhetoric and policy stances.
For example, in our poll:
- 74% of Haley voters say Biden’s proposal of more than $4.5 trillion in new taxes targeting corporations and the ultrawealthy had their economic interests in mind, compared to just 51% of voters overall.
- Only 24% of Haley voters believe Trump’s signature tax cut bill that lowered corporate tax rates had their economic interests in mind, compared to 42% of voters overall. Similarly, just 28% of Haley voters say Trump lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% had their economic interests in mind, versus 45% of all voters.
- 83% of Haley voters think Biden’s policy of reducing the federal deficit by $1.7 trillion had their economic interests in mind, compared to 59% of voters overall.
- 74% of Haley voters agree that “We should invest in the middle class to create a solid base for economic growth and opportunity,” while only 26% believe “Cutting taxes for businesses and job creators helps everyone because they invest in jobs for the middle class.”
- College-educated voters are more likely than non-educated-college voters to think Biden’s policies of establishing a 15% minimum tax on large corporations (56% for college-educated versus 55% overall) and reducing the deficit (64% versus 56%) had their economic interests in mind.
- Voters in households making more than the median income are slightly more likely than those making less than the median income to support Biden’s policies on deficit reduction (61% versus 56%) and a 15% minimum tax on large corporations (54% versus 55% overall), countering the assumption that higher-income voters oppose higher taxes due to their own financial interests.
This data suggests that many disproportionately wealthy, college-educated voters are not just open to, but are actually more supportive of corporations and the rich paying more in taxes.
© Blueprint, 2024
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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