A rchive Date
[ 21-01-2004 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ U.S ]
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[http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/politics/2363462
Putting words into deeds will be tough act for Bush
By MICHAEL HEDGES
Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle Washington Bureau
Jan. 21, 2004, 12:54AM
WASHINGTON - Now comes the hard part for President Bush - transforming the carefully honed phrases from Tuesday's State of the Union address into a strategy that can produce results with a bitterly divided Congress in an acrimonious election year. Some doubt the conditions exist on Capitol Hill for much to be done in 2004.
"An election year makes it for sure difficult to get anything done, especially when some of these proposals like the immigration plan are seen as election year ploys rather than serious proposals," said Rep. Chris Bell, D-Houston.
"There is some evidence that election years are hard years for presidents to push their agendas even when their party controls both houses of Congress," said Bob Stein, a Rice University political scientist. "The problem with this particular Congress is that it is closely divided, with Republicans having razor-thin margins."
But GOP leaders say Bush can and will push an aggressive domestic agenda this year while campaigning to keep his job.
"It is all about leadership," said House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land. "The president is going to make the case for strengthening the economy, protecting America's families and preparing people for available jobs."
And if partisanship prevails, the president won't be the loser, DeLay said. "The American people will see the Democrats for what they are, a bunch of whiners."
To succeed with much of his agenda would require Bush to keep virtually all Republicans on board and, in the Senate, add some conservative-leaning Democrats.
That slim margin of error could doom controversial proposals like a guest worker program for illegal immigrants, despite Bush taking pains in his address Tuesday to distinguish it from amnesty for immigrants.
"The president's best shot is to offer the goodies. I think from tonight's speech that would be his (Social Security) retirement account expansion proposal," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist with the University of Virginia. "The other things like immigration reform that are controversial for one reason or another are not likely to see the light of day in an election year."
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who last year had proposed some of the ideas on immigration incorporated by Bush, said he was not as pessimistic. "I was at a meeting today with the Senate majority leader and hearings on immigration were discussed. That could happen in February." Cornyn said he would welcome that. "We'd finally be coming to grips with something that has been broken for a long time."
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, praised Bush for laying out a balanced domestic agenda.
"The president's proposed training plan will help our workforce adjust to our evolving economy. I applaud his efforts to make permanent last years tax cuts, which proved essential to increasing commerce. America's working families deserve lasting relief, particularly from unfair taxes such as the marriage penalty," she said.
To pass initiatives like those in his speech, Bush likely will need the help of Democrats.
Some Democratic legislators said Tuesday the president is off to a poor start if his goal is to reach across the aisle to the other party. "It has been disappointing to me as someone who knew Bush in Texas as a conciliatory governor to see what has happened since he got to the White House," said Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Houston.
She said Bush has shown no inclination to meet Democrats on issues they embrace, like a raised minimum wage. Instead, he has taken unilateral actions such as the recent appointment of controversial federal Judge Charles Pickering, named as a recess appointment to the appellate bench in New Orleans. Pickering was opposed by Democrats over his 1994 decision to reduce the sentence of a man convicted of burning a cross near the home of an interracial couple. Republicans maintained Pickering was motivated by concern over the fairness of sentences meted out in the case.
"There is no question the president sent a loud message that he doesn't care what the other side thinks when he named Judge Pickering," said Bell. "If he hoped to accomplish anything with Congress he made it far more difficult on himself."
Complicating the election year calculations for Bush is the need to cultivate his political base of conservative white male voters, experts said.
"You cannot ignore your base, especially if you are a Republican with voter demographics going against you," Stein said. "You need to bring every single voter, you need to energize your base, not take it for granted."
The dilemma for Bush, who already has proposed large new spending initiatives that would increase the federal deficit, is that his conservative base isn't warmed up by big ticket federal expenditures, experts said.
But there are issues for which Texas legislators appear poised to work with Bush, regardless of party affiliation. That's true especially when those ideas bring jobs or money to the state, or address a critical social issue.
Jackson Lee and some other Democrats said the Bush space agency initiative, which calls for a relatively modest expenditure of $1 billion in next year's budget, should be passed.
The president's energy bill is going to be tough to pass in 2004, legislators said, despite the support of powerful Texans. The bill cleared the House but faltered in the Senate last year. Even some Republicans on Capitol Hill have been questioning the costs of the energy bill on a budget stressed by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and massive tax cuts.
"We need to look not only at the costs of passing an energy bill, we need to look at the costs of not passing one," said Cornyn. "We are becoming even more dependent on foreign energy, and more vulnerable as a nation."
The energy bill includes billions in tax breaks for the oil, gas, nuclear power and coal industries and a mandate to double the production of the gasoline additive ethanol. It also gives some liability protections to companies that use MTBE, a gasoline additive known to pollute groundwater.
Asked about the prospects for an energy bill in the coming Congress, Cornyn said, "I think we lost some momentum last year. I'd say it has a 50-50 chance, I hope a little better." DeLay also said the Senate would be a tough sell on the energy bill.
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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