A rchive Date
[ 19-02-2002 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Canada ]
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[http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/weston.html
The math of defeat
Is 'divide and conquer' keeping the Liberals in office? The fact is, any Conservative-Alliance merger would probably drive Tories to the Grits
By GREG WESTON -- Sun Media
February 19, 2002
In a colourful display of poor taste and unanimous boredom with Jean Chretien's latest (and quite possibly last) "Team Canada" trade junket abroad, several of Canada's Conservative premiers opined in mid-tour that the only way to drive their host prime minister and his Liberal party from power would be a union between the federal Tories and the Canadian Alliance.
A survey of provincial leaders on this issue was apparently conducted by equally idle reporters on the week-long trade mission, somewhere between photo-ops in Moscow and Berlin.
Alberta Premier Ralph Klein was quoted as saying: "Unless there is a unification of the conservative movement between (the Alliance) and the Progressive Conservatives, there will be no chance for any meaningful opposition in this country, or no chance for the conservatives to form the government for many, many years to come."
Pat Binns of Prince Edward Island weighed in with this comment: "The only way ... to succeed in national affairs is for those parties to come together again."
The conservative unity issue is a hot topic these days, of course, as the Alliance party gears up to elect a new leader (or re-elect the old one) next month, and the Tories prepare to put themselves and Joe Clark through a similar wringer this summer.
The theory is that if the Tories and Alliance could somehow meld into one, and quit dividing the vote, together they could vanquish the Liberals at the polls.
This is what has become known as the Great Canadian Vote-Splitting Myth.
And a big myth it is.
Dr. Grant Hill, the Alberta MP who is running for the Alliance leadership in large measure on a platform of somehow uniting with the Tories, recently claimed vote-splitting cost the two parties 34 seats in the last federal election.
In a press release stunning for its faulty thinking, Hill claimed that in the 2000 election, a total of 29 Alliance candidates and five Tories in ridings across the country "lost as a consequence of vote-splitting.
"If small-c conservatives had worked together in those 34 ridings, they would have won, and there would be a minority Liberal government today."
Whoa there, Doc.
The 34 ridings are simply the ones in which the total number of Alliance and Tory votes combined were greater than those cast for the winning Liberal candidates (and, in one case, for the winning New Democrat).
And therein lies the biggest hole in the unity scenario: It assumes that everyone who voted for Joe Clark and the Tories would have voted for a unified party headed by Stockwell Day.
Or, conversely, it imagines everyone who voted for Stock would have voted for Joe.
Now back to reality. Clark and his Conservatives are currently sitting at just under 20% in the public opinion polls.
Tory strategists estimate that in a merger with the Alliance, at least half of the Conservatives' current support could move to the Liberals -- far more if the leader of the new unified party were a social conservative such as Stock Day or Stephen Harper.
Similarly, despite the near-collapse of the Alliance, there has been no stampede to the Tories under Clark's leadership.
In fact, in the exodus of Alliance support from 26% of the popular vote in the last election to less than 10% in the polls today, well over half of those defectors have gone to the Liberals.
Bottom line: Putting the Alliance and Tory parties together today would probably be of greatest benefit to the Liberals.
New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord got it right when he said the winning political combination in this country is a party that appeals to fiscally conservative voters and social progressives who tend to vote Liberal.
"If you can't attract Liberal voters in Ontario and Quebec, you are not going to win. They are in the centre. It's not complicated."
Sounds a lot like the Tory party with a new leader.
Greg Weston is Sun Media's national political columnist, his columns appear Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.
Letters to the editor should be sent to editor@sunpub.com.
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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