A rchive Date
[ 15-06-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ U.S ]
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[http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/mansur_toronto.html
Those mysterious WMD
By SALIM MANSUR -- For the Toronto Sun
June 12, 2003
LONDON, Ont. -- On the subject of the missing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq and the resulting controversy this has caused in the U.S. and Great Britain, we cannot go wrong by asking Iraqis about their concerns. Those responses have been coming in steadily - Iraqis are far more concerned about building a secure and stable society.
The Baghdad Blogger, otherwise known by his nom de plume "Salam Pax," who became a sensation with his diary on the Internet about life during the war in Saddam Hussein's capital, wrote recently: "The main concern of people in all Iraqi cities is still security."
At the end of May, Fikri Centre, the opinion poll department at the Iraq Institute for Democracy, based in Baghdad, released results of a survey it conducted.
The institute randomly selected 510 Iraqis, 18 years and older, in Baghdad and Mosul, and asked them two questions: 1) Do they want the U.S. and coalition forces to withdraw immediately, or 2) do they want them to stay until national elections and the establishment of a national government?
The results were that 17.45% of those surveyed (89 people) were in favour of immediate withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces, while 76.67% (391 people) want them to stay until a national government is established. The remaining 5.88% (30 people) had no opinion.
The controversy over the missing WMD is located in the old democracies of the U.S. and Great Britain.
First, there are those who opposed regime change in Iraq under most, if not all, circumstances, and now contend the lack of evidence of WMD shows there was no justification for war, and that the public was deceived, manipulated, or both by cynical hawks in Washington and London. These voices are political by nature and will move to some other issue to score points and shape the electorates' opinions once the missing WMD are accounted for.
The verdict on this matter - whether people feel deceived, manipulated, or view the war as justified - will be delivered by Americans and Britons, in the next elections.
Then there is the genuine concern about what did happen to Saddam Hussein's WMD, since the peril of their potential use cannot be discounted as long as they remain unaccounted for.
We know that for four years - between December, 1998 when UNSCOM inspectors left Iraq and November, 2002 when UNMOVIC inspectors returned - there was no one monitoring Iraq's weapons program and its disarmament obligations to the Security Council under ceasefire agreements following the end of the Gulf war in 1991.
In UNMOVIC's first report to the Security Council on Jan. 27, 2003, Dr. Hans Blix reported, among other things, that Iraq had not accounted for a large quantity of chemical and biological warfare agents. He also said Saddam's regime, while co-operating with the process of inspection, was not forthcoming on the substance; that the Iraqis were making the inspection process a game of catch as catch can.
The implication was obvious: Saddam was bent on keeping his WMD as a deterrence and had them securely hidden.
If the WMD were not hidden, since they have not been found, then the question is did Saddam have them destroyed and, if so, why did he not report it?
It will take another column to deal with this question, for the mystery of the missing WMD has more to do with Saddam than the political masters in Washington or London.
The other possibility is that Saddam could have taken the fog of war as an opportunity to ship his WMD to neighbouring states. Such a recourse would be in keeping with his decision to send his warplanes to sanctuary in Iran during the Gulf war of 1991.
Those who argue that unless the missing WMD are accounted for the toppling of the Saddam regime was illegitimate and unjustified, should pay heed to Iraqis.
None except for diehard Saddam loyalists, irrespective of the present transitional pains Iraq is undergoing, would like to see the events that ended the rule of his hated regime reversed.
Salim Mansur is a professor of political science at the University of Western Ontario. His column appears alternate Thursdays. He can be reached at smansurca@yahoo.ca Letters to the editor should be sent to editor@sunpub.com
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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